639,000 Natural Christmas Trees Expected to be Used This Year

Working with the professional staff of the National Christmas Tree Association (http://www.christmastree.org/home.cfm), Colorado Recycles estimates that approximately 639,000 natural Christmas trees will be set up by homeowners in Colorado this year. Of those, approximately 543,000 - 575,000 will be placed in community based recycling programs.

The model for forecasting use that is employed by the NCTA estimates that 29% of households in America will opt for a natural Christmas tree. According to the Colorado Department of Local Affairs, there were an estimated 2,204,528 occupied households in Colorado in 2009. While total households have increased in numbers in 2010, no estimates are currently available beyond the official 2009 numbers. By applying the NCTA percentage to Colorado households, a total of 639,000 real Christmas trees are expected to be purchased or cut and erected in Colorado this season.

We have been more conservative with our estimates this year because of the extremely difficult economic downturn that has plagued the state over the past several months. While available housing stock has increased, there is little doubt that the recession has reduced the number of occupied households. The Colorado Department of Local Affairs most recent estimates indicate that somewhat over 11% of household stock is considered to be vacant. Additionally, the economic conditions are likely to constrict disposable income for families, and we must recognize that some families will not be able to acquire Christmas trees this year.

Recycling rates are difficult to calculate or estimate because many people who respond to survey questions do not realize that they are recycling when they put their tree at the curb. Often, people think that because their trash hauling service collects their tree that it is just being taken away as trash and do not realize that the tree may be headed for a mulching machine. The professional pollsters used by the NCTA consistently report that 85% - 90% of those polled report that they place their old Christmas tree in a recycling program.

There is no reason to believe that Colorado households act differently than those on a nationwide basis so the participation rate should be comparable. Most Colorado recycled Christmas trees are turned into mulch for landscaping use by homeowners and local government programs. The number of communitysupported Christmas tree recycling programs in Colorado has grown each year, and we expect to see close to 100 such programs this year. In addition to the municipal and county programs, there are several Christmas tree recycling programs sponsored by nonprofit organizations such as the Boy Scouts and several private companies also provide Christmas tree recycling. To the extent that information about those programs is made available to us, we include it in the Christmas Tree Recycling Guide.

Local communities can use this same methodology to estimate the number of Christmas trees expected to be used and recycled in their communities. The Colorado Department of Local Affairs maintains statistical estimates of the numbers of households in counties and cities.